My friend Ron claims that I do not drive. This is not true. I drive. But I dive as little as possible. Part of it is me being frugal. I don’t want to spend more than I need on gas and maintenance. But most of it is that I hate to drive. Some of this is driving time is mostly wasted time and I would rather be doing something else. Some of it is that I find driving an awful blend of boredom and stress. The stress is because driving creates a risk of harming other people and causing property damage, so I am as hypervigilant driving as I am when target shooting at the range. If I am distracted or act rashly, I could kill someone by accident. Or they could kill me. As such, I am completely in favor of effective driverless cars. That said, it is certainly worth considering the implications of their widespread adoption. The first version of this essay appeared back in 2015 and certain people have been promising that driverless cars are just around the corner. The corner remains far away.
One major selling point of driverless cars is that they are supposed to be significantly safer than human drivers. This is for a variety of reasons, many of which involve the fact that the car will not get sleepy, bored, angry, distracted or drunk. If claimed significant increase in safety pans out, there will be significantly fewer accidents and this will have a variety of effects.
Since insurance rates are (supposed to be) linked to accident rates, one might expect that insurance rates will go down. In any case, insurance companies will presumably be paying out less, potentially making them even more profitable.
Lower accident rates also entail fewer injuries, which will be good for people who would have otherwise been injured in a car crash. It would also be good for those depending on these people, such as employers and family members. Fewer injuries also mean less use of medical resources, ranging from ambulances to emergency rooms. On the plus side, this could result in some decrease in medical costs and insurance rates. Or merely mean more profits for insurance companies, since they would be paying out less often. On the minus side, this would mean less business for hospitals, therapists and other medical personnel, which might have a negative impact on their income. Overall, though, reducing the number of injuries would be a moral good on utilitarian grounds.
A reduction in the number and severity of accidents would also mean fewer traffic fatalities. On the plus side, having fewer deaths seems to be a good thing. On the minus side, funeral homes will see their business postponed and the reduction in deaths could have other impacts on such things as the employment rate (more living people means more competition for jobs). However, I will take the controversial position that fewer deaths are probably good.
While a reduction in the number and severity of accidents would mean less and lower repair bills for vehicle owners, this also entails reduced business for vehicle repair businesses. Roughly put, every dollar saved in repairs (and replacement vehicles) by self-driving cars is a dollar lost by the people whose business it is to fix (and replace) damaged vehicles. Of course, the impact depends on how much a business depends on accidents as vehicles will still need regular maintenance and repairs. People will presumably still spend the money that they would have spent on repairs and replacements on other things, and this would shift the money to other areas of the economy. The significance of this would depend on the amount of savings resulting from the self-driving vehicles.
Another economic impact of self-driving vehicles will be on those who make money driving other people around. If my truck is fully autonomous, rather than take an Uber to the airport, I could have my own truck drop me off and drive home. It can come get me when I return. People who like to drink to the point of impairment will also not need cabs or services like Uber—their own vehicle can be their designated driver. A new sharing economy might arise, one in which your vehicle is out making money while you do not need it. People might also be less inclined to use airlines, trains or the bus. If your car can safely drive you to your destination while you sleep, play video games, read or even exercise, then why go through annoying pat downs, cramped seating, delays or cancellations?
As a final point, if self-driving vehicles operate within the traffic laws automatically, then revenue from tickets and traffic violations will be reduced significantly. Since vehicles will be loaded with sensors and cameras, they will have considerable data with which to dispute any unjust tickets. Parking revenue (fees and tickets) might also be reduced as it could be cheaper for a vehicle to just circle around or drive home than to park. This reduction in revenue could have a significant impact on municipalities and they would need to find alternative sources of revenue. Or come up with new violations that self-driving cars cannot counter. Alternatively, the policing of roads might be significantly reduced. After all, if there were far fewer accidents and few violations, then fewer police would be needed on traffic patrol. This would allow officers to engage in other activities or allow a reduction of the size of the force. The downside of force reduction would that the former police officers would be out of a job.
If all vehicles become fully self-driving, there might no longer be a need for traffic lights, painted lane lines or signs in the usual sense. Perhaps cars would be pre-loaded with driving data or there would be “broadcast pods” providing data to them as needed. This could result in savings, although there would be the corresponding loss to those who sell, install and maintain these things.
Based on the past, I am predicting that I will revisit this essay again in another decade years, noting once again that driverless cars are the transportation of the future. And always will be.