While the Middle East is a land of seemingly endless turmoil, it seems that a democratic sandstorm might be striking the region with a vengeance. This potential for democracy exists, sadly enough, largely despite and not because of the United States. In general, we have backed autocrats, kings and despots in the hope that out cash would buy us allies in our war on whatever. For the most part, these allies tend to enrich themselves and their fellows while ensuring that their countries are most certainly not democracies.
Looking back on our own revolution, it should have come as no surprise that people in the Middle East would grow weary of living under the rule of despots and would rise up against them. While Egypt is the main focus of the media, Iran is also a place of potential revolution. The leadership in Iran is doing its best to keep its people focused against the United States and Mubarek. The official line is that Iran supports the people of Egypt against Mubarek and they are urging the installation of an Islamic government comparable to that in Iran. Obviously enough, Iran is hoping that the situation in Egypt will end up in their favor-either gaining Egypt as an ally or, at the very least, seeing the United States and Israel lose Egypt as an ally.
I suspect that the Iranian leadership is also a bit worried. After all, revolution can be a contagious sort of thing and seeing the people of Egypt revolting against a despot might serve to inspire Iranians to rise up once more against their own despots.
This upheaval could prove to be a good for the people of the region as well as the United States. In terms of the people, the result could be the creation of democratic states. Or, at the least, states that are not as repressive and autocratic in character. This change could, over the course of several years, create more stability in the region and lower the threat of terror by addressing some of the motivating and enabling factors.
However, it is well worth considering the lesson of Iran. That revolution resulted in the creation of an oppressive regime that has been consistently hostile to the United States. While the Brotherhood in Egypt seems to be relatively moderate, there is the real possibility that radical elements might take the reins of the upheaval. There is also the reasonable concern that those who come to power will resent the fact that America has been a major force in keeping Mubarek in power and not regard the United States as a friend. The possibility of a protracted struggle that plunges Egypt into chaos is also well worth worrying about.
Ideally, the outcome will be resolved by peaceful elections and result in the dawn of a new era for the people of Egypt. However, the history of the Middle East suggests otherwise.
Good post except for the gratuitous swipe at the U.S.
It’s in the DNA.
As a U.S. citizen, I see the very mild swipe against the U.S. as reasonable. Surely it would be illogical to assume or pretend that the U.S. is always right.
We can all agree that Mubarak was a tyrant in the eyes of his people and deservedly so. And people here in the West cannot begin to imagine the hardships and travails of life in a country like Egypt or for that matter any Third World country, be it Egypt, Sudan or whatever. Too many of the citizens of the U.S., even if they were to look at it, are too busy whining about their own supposed problems to even consider what’s going on around the world. So be it. That’s what class warfare and the entitlement society have done to us.
However, as we look deeper into the Egyptian situation, we can see a rather disturbing pattern emerging. Listen to the talking heads of the MSM. Listen to the President and his out of touch administration, Hell, they can’t even get their stories straight. Hillary says one thing. Clapper says another. And the President openly welcomes the very element that can and will destroy Egypt and in turn put Israel and the West in dire straits. Of course I and many others will be called alarmists, racists or Anti-Muslim bigots for pointing this out, but it has to be said.
One only has to remember the Iran situation. Yes, the Shah as far as the people of Iran were concerned was a despot. As the people rallied there, the talking heads including our good buddy “lost in space Carter” went on and on about how the Ayatollah was in fact a moderate Muslim who would bring peace and open Democracy to the country. I distinctly remember the few brave souls who had done their homework and warned of the impending disaster that was coming. As it is now, they were branded as subversive or worse. The world sat back and we all know what has transpired since then.
As the Iran situation came to a head, the morons in the press and government here in the States put out the fallacy that the people of Iran, having grown use to the Freedoms they did have and their supposed love for all thing U.S. would in fact turn their back on radical Islamic fundamentalism and continue to embrace and expand the Western ideals to which they had grown accustomed to. Well, we all know how that worked out! Typical head in the sand gobbley goop from the West and presto!, an Islamic hell was born.
While one can hope the army there can keep the order and help transition to a free government, the chances of that happening in my view are slim at best. First, let’s take a look at the army. They have always been the power in Egypt since the overthrow of King Furuk. No secret there. Will they give up power?
As there is a vacuum in leadership right now can we assume the radical movements, those that any idiot can see are the best organized will in fact take their shots at power? You can bet your ass they will. The head of the Muslim Brotherhood is a known terrorist with a deep seated hatred for Israel. As we move forward, one has to assume they along with infiltrators from other radical Muslim states will do their best to install a Radical regime in Egypt.
It took about 30 days from the overthrow of the Shah, to the Ayatollah’s homecoming and then an almost instant plunge in radical Muslim horror that is now Iran. Is this what one wants for Egypt? And what about Israel? As we have a President who seems hell bent on hastening her destruction, will we come to the aid of Israel when the crap really hits the fan? If Egypt is taken over in the end by the radicals, will Israel survive? Hell, let’s not even go into the oil situation right now or the fact the Egypt controls the Suez Canal. At least Mubarak was honor bound to a treaty and kept too it. Can one even think for one moment that any radical faction will not immediately turn on Israel?
Niall Ferguson nails it:
You can telll the woman interviewing him hates what he had to say. Ferguson’s good–and the Left hates him.
All the folks on the left? Monolithic hate?
chemise paul smith